Toyota just doubled-down on a hydrogen fuel cell EV future

Fuel cells may have not captured the EV market in the same way that hybrid and plug-in electric have so far, but that isn't stopping Toyota from doubling-down on production as it increases its bet on hydrogen power. The company currently offers a single fuel cell powered car in the US, the Mirai sedan, though only a handful of dealers actually sell the vehicle.

In fact, the Mirai is supported by just eight of Toyota's dealers, split 50/50 between Southern California and Northern California. That limited availability is down to hydrogen infrastructure. Although there are several projects ongoing to roll out more hydrogen fuel pumps, currently there are relatively few, and all localized in the two California regions.

Toyota, though, doesn't seem to think fuel cells are on a poor trajectory. The company has announced today that it's predicting a tenfold increase in fuel cell electric vehicle sales post-2020, and is ramping up its component production accordingly. That includes building major new facilities for both fuel cell stack and high-pressure hydrogen tank production at two locations in Japan.

It's worth noting that the "tenfold" increase is still on relatively conservative numbers of cars. Indeed, today Toyota says, it sold around 3,000 fuel cell vehicles globally in 2016, and 3,000 in California alone in 2017. It's now predicting that will grow to at least 30,000 after 2020.

In Japan alone, in fact, Toyota is targeting sales of at least 1,000 fuel cell EVs per month, and over 10,000 annually, from around 2020. It won't just be passenger cars, either. Fuel cells will also be at the heart of some of Toyota's new commercial vehicles, with the automaker already planning to supply at least 100 hydrogen powered Sora buses ahead to Tokyo ahead of the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Fuel cell electrification takes advantage of the reaction between hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity. The only output is pure water, in fact, which the Mirai vents from a small port underneath the car. The hydrogen itself is stored in a high-pressure tank, which Toyota says can absorb five times the crash energy of steel without rupturing. A full tank is enough for 312 miles of range, and can be refilled in around five minutes.

More of those tanks will be build on a new, dedicated line at Toyota's Shimoyama plant, which will focus exclusively on the extra-thick carbon fiber that the automaker uses. Construction is already underway there, with the plant expected to open around 2020. The fuel cell stacks, meanwhile, will shift production from the current location in Toyota's Honsha plant to a new, eight-floor facility. The exterior of that building has been completed, with interior fit-out expected to be production-ready on around the same timescale as the other location.

Increasing the number of parts being produced is only part of Toyota's challenge. The other side is reducing the cost of production, something which is essential if the automaker hopes to bring hydrogen vehicle pricing down. Fuel cells do have some marked advantages over plug-in battery electric cars, not least the ratio of speed of refueling versus gained range, but they're currently relatively expensive and in short number on the road.

Currently, in fact, only Toyota and Honda are doing anything in the mainstream in the US with fuel cell EVs. Without mass adoption, meanwhile, the hydrogen refueling infrastructure has been slow to grow. Toyota says it plans to invest in that hydrogen station availability, and the company has been researching standalone hydrogen generators which could potentially reduce reliance on existing networks, but there's no way, for example, to fill up your fuel cell car at home in the way that plug-in EV owners can recharge.