I think Niantic needs a serious re-think of its process with Shiny Pokemon in Pokemon GO. With the incoming possibility of a connection between games with Pokemon Bank and Pokemon Home, the company needs to make a serious effort to reign in not only the amount of Shiny Pokemon that exist in the game, but in how the game is played, since the connected games’ Pokemon rarity will be all over the place.
The original launch of Shiny Pokemon was in Generation II, with Pokemon Gold and Pokemon Silver. Back then, they weren’t yet called Shiny. They didn’t get that name until Generation V, with Pokemon Black and White. The rarity of these Pokemon and the method of gameplay in these games made Shiny Pokemon the most exciting feature of the series.
With the release of Pokemon GO’s Shiny Pokemon, Shiny Pokemon became a whole lot more common. With the connecting of many Pokemon games currently available with the Pokemon Bank, the likelihood that any one person would own a Shiny Pokemon will go up. Pokemon Bank is a subscription service – you get to use it if you pay approximately $5 USD annually.
The Pokemon Bank system works with Pokemon Sun, Moon, X, Y, Omega Ruby, Alpha Sapphire, and possibly more in the near future. Pokemon Black and White as well as Black 2 and White 2 can use the Poke Transporter system to deposit Pokemon in the Pokemon Bank to be withdrawn to other games.
In July of 2018, a Famitsu interview with Game Freak’s Junichi Masuda indicated the possibility that Pokemon Bank support would come to the newest Pokemon games: Pokemon Let’s GO Pikachu and Eevee. Pokemon Let’s GO can connect with Pokemon GO and transfer back and forth at will.
Pokemon Home is another service that’ll allow Pokemon games to connect. With Pokemon Home, users will be able to transfer from Pokemon GO to other games. This Pokemon Home service is expected to launch in early 2020.
Notes on Pokemon Sword and Shield suggest the ditching of Mega Evolution and Z-Moves, so we can assume other big game changes are also in the mix.
Shiny Pokemon in the elder games appear with a 1 in 8192 chance with every encounter. That number resets every single time you encounter a Pokemon. According to extensive research conducted by The Silph Road, the chances of finding a Shiny Pokemon in Pokemon GO are approximately 1 in 450.
The chances of a Shiny Pokemon in an event-highlight species is closer to 1 in 45. Community Day special Pokemon have a Shiny Pokemon find rate of around 1 in 24.5. Legendary Raid Shiny Pokemon rates are even higher.
A Modest Proposal
I believe that if the Pokemon Bank app and ecosystem is connected with the Pokemon GO family of games, the Shiny Rates for Pokemon GO should be set to 1 in 8192, like the rest of the games. Without this change, users will be better off playing Pokemon GO and abandoning the old games altogether – IF the Shiny Pokemon is their ultimate goal.
Punishing players of the older games with regard to trading Pokemon with people who’ve spent more money to buy additional games to make it easier to find Shiny Pokemon – that’s a whole lot of junk. If they’re going to connect, it’s time to even the odds!