New Shiny Pokemon GO study finds the rare rates

Chris Burns - Nov 12, 2020, 1:30pm CST
New Shiny Pokemon GO study finds the rare rates

A new study conducted by the folks at The Silph Road showed the rates at which Shiny Pokemon appear in Pokemon GO. This newest study is ongoing, which means the rates of capture could change. For now, though, it would appear that the new model confirms what you might’ve suspected all along: You’re not losing your mind, Shiny Pokemon in Pokemon GO are rarer than expected.

The latest study by The Silph Road included thousands of captures over the course of weeks, months, and eventually years. The Silph Road has been collecting data on the game Pokemon GO since launch – this latest Shiny Pokemon study is a reboot of the model they’ve been using for the past few years.

Calculating the spawn rate of any one sort of Pokemon is never absolutely perfect. Only Niantic knows for sure. But after the entire Silph Research Group’s findings racked up hundreds, then thousands, then hundreds of thousands of trials, the numbers start to get pretty much as accurate as they need to be for your average Pokemon GO gamer.

Results from this latest study include Shiny spawn rates for several different situations, including Raid Day, Legendary Raid, Community Day, Permaboost, Medium Event, and Base Rate.

Silph Road Shiny Pokemon GO spawn rate calculations:
• Raid Day*: 1 in 10.2-10.9
• Legendary Raid: 1 in 18.6-20.2
• Community Day: 1 in 24.4-25.1
• Permaboost: 1 in 56-65
• Medium Event: 1 in 126-141
• Base Rate: 1 in 508

So your best chance at catching any Shiny Pokemon in Pokemon GO is on a featured Raid Day. *The Silph Road also noted that this rate is the same in three-hour special raid events as it is in “some limited research events.” If you have a Legendary Pokemon who has an activated Shiny version available in the game, appear in a Legendary Raid, you’ll have a pretty good chance of finding a Shiny version if you win said raid.

Community Day is the best sort of event to find a Shiny Pokemon if you’re not playing the game in an area where you’ve got a lot of friends with whom you can do big raid battles. The “Permaboost” rate only applies to a few Pokemon who have a much more common Shiny Pokemon spawn rate than the general Pokemon public.

The Silph Road put forth a hypothesis that seems to fit their data – and Occam’s razor – that Shiny Pokemon spawn rates are simply multiples of the base rate. Starting with a base rate of 1/500, the rates are as such:

Multiple Hypothesis Shiny Pokemon GO spawn rates:
• Raid Day: 1 in 10
• Legendary Raid: 1 in 20
• Community Day: 1 in 25
• Permaboost: 1 in 62.5
• Medium Event: 1 in 125
• Base Rate: 1 in 500

The most recent update from The Silph Road suggests there’s a possibility that the Raid Day rate could be separate from the rate which a Shiny Pokemon appears after any Raid Battle or in any Pokemon Egg. That rate would be 1 in 50.

If you’d like to participate in future studies with The Silph Road, you may want to see their Research Group and join their Discord. Or just pop down to the Pokemon GO timeline below for more information on the latest updates to the game!


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