Analysts at IDC are making bold Windows Phone predictions again, and despite new devices being conspicuous by their absence, the incoming rush of Nokia hardware still leads them to suggest the OS will hold the number two smartphone position by 2015. That would leave iOS in third place, while Android is estimated to grow its current share by 5-percent to further cement its lead across the segment.
It’s not the first time we’ve heard such strong predictions for Microsoft’s Windows Phone platform. IDC made similar estimates back in March, though the numbers have fluctuated a little since then. Interestingly, the current estimate for Windows Phone (and Windows Mobile) market share in 2011 has actually dropped in the adjusted figures, down to just 3.8-percent (from 5.5-percent a few months back).
“Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.” IDC
Symbian, meanwhile, is expected to have a 0.2-percent market share by 2015, while RIM’s BlackBerry OS will see a minor drop, it’s predicted, to 13.4-percent from 14.2-percent. Both it and iOS, IDC suggests, will see falling share even as shipments rise, with Android and Windows Phone accelerating ahead.