Apple’s new devices are out and analysts did get many thing right. Now that shipping dates are close, it’s time for them to once again sharpen their knives and forecast which will be hot and which will be not. Famed analyst Ming-chi Kuo has already given his early analysis of what’s going to happen in the next few weeks. Unsurprisingly, the Apple Watch 4 pre-order have exceeded expectations but the iPhone Xs, like its predecessor, might not do so well.
That pre-orders for the Apple Watch Series 4 are doing well is really not unexpected. Kuo believes that up to 55% of the estimated 18 million shipped Apple Watches this year will be from Series 4. With ECG support and a larger screen, the Apple Watch’s health benefits have obviously become its biggest selling factor, especially if the ECG heart rate monitor
Of the three new iPhones, Kuo thinks that the iPhone Xs Max is meeting expectations, especially in China. The dual SIM, gold color, and large screen check all the boxes for that region. Plus, they don’t have to wait as long as they did for the iPhone X last year. Kuo thinks it will take up as much as 30% of the new iPhone shipments this year.
That has nothing on the iPhone Xr though. Kuo revised his forecast, predicting that 60% of the shipments will be taken up by the cheaper variant. That model’s lower pricing and dual SIM, while still sporting the same premium looks, is predicted to be a hit. Again, especially in China.
That leaves 10 to 15 percent of the shipments to the iPhone Xs, the direct descendant of last year’s premium model. It is perhaps because of that pre-orders for the smartphone are doing poorly. Then again, analysts got their predictions wrong with the iPhone X too.