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Desktops starting with Dell have begun being sold with Linux pre-installed, almost all of the new UMPC Eee-like notebooks that are selling in extremely large numbers these days are coming with Linux pre-installed, Everex is pushing Linux desktops through Wal-Mart, and lots of new computers are getting SLED certified or some other form of Linux certification. Add to that the increased popularity of all things Linux, the increasing ease of use of Linux as a desktop operating system and it has me wondering why there hasn’t been a spike in Linux’s market share?
Linux couldn’t even beat out Windows 98 until sometime between August 20th and August 30th of last year according to W3Counter. According to that same site, since the 10th of May last year until the 29th of February this year Linux has only seen a .76% increase in its market share, which still only brings it up to a market share of 2.01%.
Comparatively 2.01% is still pretty good considering that’s almost double what Windows 98 is right now and excluding XP which still holds the top spot, Linux’s best competitor, Windows Vista, is only sitting at 6.48%. It still frustrates me that with all the advances in the Linux world as far as making things useable goes and with all the new computers being sold with Linux on them, it frustrates me that Linux still can’t beat Windows 2000.
I can totally understand Linux not being able to beat OS X, Vista, or XP, but it should certainly be able to beat out a version of Windows that’s so old its usability is probably less than that of the newer distros of Linux. Maybe with this next push of Linux notebooks including the upcoming offerings of Asus, Acer’s Eee competitor, the CloudBook which still hadn’t been released since these most recent figures, and the HP2133 Linux might gain the 1.29% market share it needs to beat Windows 2000’s 3.29% market share.
[Picture Credit: Ars.Technica]
There is no accurate way to measure the number of people using Linux on the desktop. People can download many different distros but may only choose one or two to actually use. Most Linux users build their own computers or are using it on older machines that are too slow for XP or Vista. Some people buy a computer with XP or Vista, format the hard drive and install Linux. I think the number is much higher than is estimated. Many people have never even heard of it and are surprised that it’s so good, when they do. Why worry about it? If you like Linux, use it. I do.
I understand your feelings but hey, lets look at the bright site: now 2 in every hundred people on the Internet are on Linux! Almost 30% use Firefox now. This is a big deal and it scares the hell out of Microsoft.
Having seen traffic reports for some large companies I have worked for over the years, I can tell you that probably 95% of web surfing occurs 8am-5pm Monday through Friday — working hours. If 50% of the world had Linux installed at home (which I’m not suggesting is true), that still may only show up as a small percentage on web-site statistics if every corporation is running Windows on their thousands of desktops.
These web statistics are never going to accurately depict the entire market. They depict largely the breakdown of OSes that people are using at work.
It’s a big deal. 2% is a great result. The number doesn’t look well but imagine how many machines are behind 2% world wide. I guess at least 20 million and it’s not bad in spite of MS monopoly and all barriers for a new OS to grow. Linux grows up slowly but it certainly grows up and this is important.
For everyday use Linux has most stuff 90% of the users need. The growth might be somewhat concealed, but it’s there. There is a threshold that Linux bumps it’s head against and I believe it will continue to bump that threshold for some time. When the burst comes (and it will) - it will make its mark on any statistic. What happens now is that loads of teenagers/youngsters are testing distros such as *buntu. As a group they are on the verge of realising that they actually can have fun with Linux. They will set up the old laptops for grannie, grandpa, mommie and little Annie. Then they will start sharing stuff on a homebrew server. This will turn out loads of young systemadmins.
When they burst through the threshold - it will be in numbers. The gaming industry are already starting to pick up this trend, and will be ready. Another vessel will hit the markets late this year: Android. Cool Android-gadgets will increase acceptance for Linux.
Meanwhile one of the issues for Linux desktops that needs adressing is workflow. The look and appearance are both there, but getting it all together makes the icing that makes the cake. KDE 4 might be the platform that makes a proper workflow possible.
The licencing and sharing makes Linux a perfect platform to enable decent workflow. At the same time, the segmented development structure is also the biggest hurdle. How many distros do we need? Is it possible to merge packaging down to 1-2 alternatives that embraces the best of each?
The only people with reason to complain about Linux DOUBLING market share in 8 months have financial interests in Microsoft. Everyone else should cheer.
It’s economically driven and short of MS reducing the price of OEM XP to somewhere around free, there isn’t much MS can do about it. The most expensive part of a low-end computer and smallest value-add is the OEM Windows license, especially a “Vista Home Basic” one. There’s simply no place else to reduce costs.
I think the guy who said that the future of the computer market is going to be Linux at the low-mid end and OSX for the high end has it right.
don’ t worry…we’ll get there. linux is being used on more and more different kinds of platforms (mobile phone’s, asus eee and other little devices). more people will try it out just look at the amazing sucess of ubuntu. the only thing what should be pushed more is oem installed machines (like dell with ubuntu). eventually it will beat ms 2000 and probably even apple.
First of all you need to be clear what you mean by “Market share”. Market share usualy means the percent of computers sold in a year, while W3counter would measure computers currently runnig *including old computer running Win98″.
Second point is that Linux will have hard time to take a market share because: A) it is different than what people are used to and B) has no advertizing budget. Unlike Apple, when was the last time you saw Linux commercial on TV? OK There was one commercial from IBM few years ago, but that was aimed at Server market.
I’m a Windows user who will try anything. I used Linux for about 6 months about 25% of the time last year until I built a new desktop and put Vista on it. A month or so ago I bought a Thinkpad put a larger and faster hard drive in it. It’s more of a experimental than production machine so I got the bug to try Linux again, I tried several live CDs and once again found Ubuntu to be the one I prefer. It’s the beta of 8.04 and it seems like it’s turned a corner for me. I used the Wubi installer to install it like an app into Vista and it runs great. Unlike past frustrations, the wifi actually works now, even with wpa!
Now if it would only game…