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It’s an interesting challenge. Lots of mobile devices that are all vying for the consumer pocket (and wallet). But just how many devices will consumers carry with them at any one time? The answer is important as that also helps define which devices will be successful and which ones will fail. Conventional wisdom holds that most consumers prefer to carry only a single device, and while that wisdom is correct it only tells a partial story. We’ve done some interesting research at Interpret that says there’s more here than conventional wisdom would indicate and that consumers are willing to carry more than one device; however there’s also an upper limit on that number.
What makes this all the more tricky is there’s a lot of overlap in device functionality. Five years ago, mobile devices were easy to classify. Phones were for talking, cameras were for taking pictures and media players were for listening to music. Today’s new converged devices raise the question of consumer preference to carry a single device vs. multiple standalone devices. We’ve discovered that even as there’s consumer preference for a single device, consumers are actually willing to carry multiple devices as circumstances dictate. In fact, the curve for what consumers will carry is a not a linear curve downward starting with one as might be expected, but actually a bell curve balanced between one and three devices. Three, however, is an upper limit and there’s a steep decline for consumers willing to carry four devices or more.
This willingness to carry multiple devices leads to what I like to call the mobile “rule of three”. In order to be a part of the consumer mobile eco-system, device vendors must be certain to be a part of the top three devices consumers will carry with them. Devices that do not make it into the first three (and ideally the first two) are likely to be left behind and viewed as less important to consumers.
While it appears that there’s a contradiction in terms of what consumers will carry and what they prefer to carry, I don’t believe the two are at odds with each other. Rather, we are reaching a point where consumers will own and carry multiple devices based on context, always tending to carry the fewest devices possible at any given time. No less than needed and rarely more than three.
This contextual basis will mean that different devices fall into different parts of the consumer hierarchy based on their given mode. As the mobile space represents the place that is neither work nor home, consumers will use multiple devices that allow them to move in and out of both of these modes. The result is that there are scenarios that will make sense for consumers to carry a single converged device. For example a phone with integrated media player and camera might be the preferred device for taking to the gym to listen to music, or an evening dinner to capture casual photos. In contrast, a dedicated media player will be called for cross country flights and a dedicated camera for vacation trips or to capture important photographs.
Mobile devices are following two contradictory trajectories, with one class of devices fragmenting in terms of core functions creating new markets for standalone devices, while other converged devices are taking on new features and functions, rivaling standalone devices for features. Neither approach is universally correct and I think it’s important that vendors creating mobile devices need to understand and focus on the contextual nature of consumer device use and find the core features to map into the first three device count of their mobile eco systems. So that leaves me with my question: how many devices are you willing to carry and what are they?
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net. Contact him at Gartenberg AT gmail DOT com Views expressed here are his own.
6 Responses to “Understanding the Mobile Rule of Three”
Chris Davies August 12, 2009
I’d be a three-device user if I could find a MID/UMPC that was small enough and functional enough to persuade me to spend the money. Then I’d have a smartphone, MiFi and MID.
+2Evan Selleck August 12, 2009
I’ve found that two works for me. It used to be one, until I got rid of the iPhone for lack of operations. But now, I find that listening to music, while important, kills the battery of my phone too quickly to let me use it for what it’s meant for. Carrying two devices means I get what I want, without having to worry too much about loss of functionality or longevity.
Neutraladante August 18, 2009
Interesting points made and I agree. A related question is, what are the 3 leading ‘categories’ going to be in the future, and how are they going to interact? Are they even going to be directly tangible end-user?
Today I guess it is (as you alluded to) phone, camera and media player. But grid access is also fundamentally important. Where do activities such as web browsing and (ugh) twitter fit in? Is there going to be a next big thing and how will it supplant or interact with the other 3?
It is also telling that your examples map general purpose devices with day-to-day activities, and specialised devices with special events. I think it’s clear that for the majority of people the functionality provided by general purpose devices is ‘good enough’ (if not necessarily the price).
To answer the survey, for my day to day life, my G1 accompanied occasionally by the laptop (if that counts).
+1beni August 25, 2009
Before the iPhone 3GS, I was always carrying more than one device. Even with the iPhone 2G and 3G, I had to carry an additional SonyEricsson phone, just to cover lack of battery life and to cover for SMS/MMS flaws and because of the bad camera. The iPhone 3GS is the first device that makes having a notebook and backup phone or camera obsolete in 90% of the cases. It really changed the way I handle communication and computing.
With the iPhone now having tethering enabled, copy&paste and the improved camera, I finally have reached the point that 15 years ago, I thought it was just around the corner… I was struggling for years hacking devices, connecting (analog) mobile phones to notebooks, using the PSION netbook (great device!), the Apple Newton and hundreds of other great gadgets that never really could deliver what I envisioned…
Now, I really enjoy this one gadget which is already very close to what I would want it to be. I’m lucky that the network coverage where I live (Switzerland) allows me to use the iPhone in ways that make internal storage more or less obsolete – listening to internet radio or listening remotely to my iTunes library at home over the air and accessing documents in the cloud.
However, I’m still carrying multiple devices – maybe just because I like gadgets. Currently, I’m using the iPhone 3GS and the HTC Hero (an Android device – just to have an alternative to Apple) at the same time.
+2Imaxpower August 26, 2009
Iphone 3gs is really a great phone and it makes our world very different.
+12 devices, exactly as Evan said. I have a super smartphone in the ATT tilt that does everything and then a much cheaper MP3 player that runs down batteries and takes a lot of abuse. The smartphone simply took too much of a beating when I used it for music.
I think a good way to look at it would be a “fragile” device and a “tough” device. The fragile device is super capable but needs pampering. The tough device gets less done but is cheap and can take a beating.
Neutral