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According to analyst Generator Research, in the next five years we will see Apple’s smartphones outselling Nokia’s handsets and snatching up 40 percent of the global smartphone market. This may be due to the leaning curve that Symbian S60 requires compared to the simple user interface of the iPhone.
Generator believes that with a cash reserve of $25 billion, the iPhone just about to enter its fastest growth phase and having a 33 percent growth margin, Apple has the recourses and motivation to invest even more money in their mobile phones when other more established mobile phone companies are having to cut back in many areas including product development.
“Outsiders are rewriting the mobile industry’s rulebook and the new rule is that you need a fully-integrated platform that has a rich API open to third party developers on favorable terms. Right now, Apple has the best platform and the best-looking forward roadmap.”
The impact on other companies such as Nokia is said to be as much of a loss in the smartphone market to jump from 40 percent to just 20 percent by 2013. Andrew Sheehy, head of research at Generator believes that the iPhone and App Store will follow the same trends that Apple’s iTunes and iPod line has followed, ultimately gaining the largest market share.
I don’t think so. When people understand that there are more capable platforms out there they will change iPhone for something else. But if I’m wrong then God please kill me cause that would be apocalypse :P
Analysts are not always right. They make predictions based on whats going on, not taking into account that things change between now and then. So if the world stayed just as it is now then yes but we will see because there is some tough competition brewing out there.
I somehow doubt that they will actually. Different people have different needs in a smartphone. Some people want and need more multimedia oriented platforms, and others want and need more business oriented solutions. Also, while Apple might be popular in the US, they’re not that popular elsewhere.
With the innovations we’ve seen coming out of CES this year, it seems that Apple has some serious competition fronting up to them in the touchscreen arena. The newly announced, and soon to be released, Palm Pre` is posed to gave Apple a serious headache.
From what I’ve read and seen of the Palm Pre`, so far, it looks utterly fantastic. Also, Nokia’s upcoming N97 is a very heavy hitter.
It’s good to keep in mind that some people have absolute disdain for Apple’s culture. And, will avoid their products like the plague, no matter how good they may or may not be, simply because of that – I happen to be one of them.
It all must be taken with a grain of salt. The Palm Pre will definitely bring a lot of competition to Apple’s front door especially with the lack of decent smartphones Sprint currently has available. This analysis of course was made without even a mention of the new Palm handset. I can see Apple doing better than they are now, but not 40 percent better.
This analyst is incredibly short-sighted. WinMo took a beating this last year and still sold twice as many phones as Apple. As great as the iphone is, it is a SINGLE phone from a SINGLE manufacturer and is only available on a SINGLE network for each of its markets. All of these things greatly limit Apple’s ability to rule the smartphone world.
If you doubt this, note the following: Apple will release one, maybe two phones this year. There were 30+ WinMo phones released last year. Fewer WinMo phones are expected this year, but there will undoubtedly be at the VERY least 10+ by the year’s end. Android has only been on the market for six months, has a better API platform (according to the development community), and will be available on at least a dozen different phones by the end of the year (likely closer to 20 different phones). RIM owns the enterprise market for a good reason, it is trusted and established. Blackberry Enterprise Servers are also already in place for enterprise customers.
Apple makes a great phone, but predicting them as the dominant “smart phone” maker in 5 years is ridiculous in my mind (despite Apple throwing mountains of cash into advertising). It will likely be the best selling individual handset for a good while. However, unless OS X is made available to additional devices and/or networks, Apple will NEVER be the top dog in the market.
Don’t write to me as if I’m an idiot. I’m well aware of all the things you mentioned.
I said nothing that implies that you are an idiot. Simply agreeing with your comment.
A little dramatic don’t you think?
Has the Analyst heard of RIMM?
Has the Analyst heard of the “refurbished” i phones for sale at Best Buy?
Ya, those are the ones no one wants.
Ted K.
lol funny article…
this was wroten before the palm pré right? =P
Looking now to iPhone its like looking for a device from the past.
People were dismissing the iPod back when it first came out, citing “some really tough competition just around the corner.” Well, that competition came and went, and the iPod, seemingly easily, climbed its way to the top. The climb was slow, at first, but when most of the competition could only, at best, borrow the iPod’s features, it seemed apparent to consumers to just skip the BS and go with the real thing. The same pattern seems to be repeating for the iPhone, not to mention Mac OS X.
Bill, please explain why you feel this way. I’ve read many comments by people with the same stance. Apple is still very much of a minority player in all markets except for their iTunes/iPod department so I can’t understand the “If you’re into it, I’m out of it” mentality applied to their entire product line. What has Apple done to strike a wrong chord with you, and why did you take it personally? Is it their superior attitude towards their products? If so, are you against Axe deodorant because their commercials are exaggerated? Do you have disdain for Burger King because they claim that their burger is better than the other guy’s? Do you share the same love for Windows that many Mac users have for their Apple products? Are you a self-proclaimed Linux “purist?” Are you somehow irritated at Apples success – and if so, why? How does it affect you? Please elaborate on your feelings for the benefit of your stance.
Bryan, I think the disdain for Apple stems from misinformed Apple fanboys who refuse to look at their products objectively. The guys I’m writing about are the ones that claim a 2MP camera with no flash, autofocus nor video is superior to the standard 5MP with flash, auto focus and video, not to mention MMS; the guys who claim the iphone was the first touchscreen despite the technology having been available in smartphones for a decade (see Palm); the guys who claim no phone out there can do what the iphone does, despite the functionality being available on dozens of other phones; etc. On top of listening to these idiots, we get bombarded by Apple’s marketing blitz 24/7/365. This probably annoys me more than anything else.
The analogy has become cliche, but the iphone experience really is as if Jobs has a very high-walled garden. The garden is quite beautiful, but is has very high walls so he can control every aspect of it. I bought a very nice camera phone with GPS from Verizon a few years ago, and I was appalled to find out that the GPS and Java was locked down. This meant the hardware I bought was greatly crippled/limited to what Verizon felt was appropriate. This approach infuriates me, and is very similar to the one employed by Apple (one device, one provider, mandated data plans, etc.). The iphone is a GREAT phone, but it is not the only great phone out there. Sans the huge marketing efforts, the iphone would be just another really cool phone.
Personally, I’m pumped about Android…
I agree, misinformed individuals are annoying, but there are misinformed people promoting and backing all sorts of ideas from all aspects of society. Do you then carry disdain for something that you would otherwise approve of, say, your preferred political stance, just because some people preach an incorrect message about it? Truth in a message is something to aspire, but it makes little sense to disregard the actual source of a message because of a few corrupt messengers. That just seems to bring you down to that same stubborn, irrational fanboy level that you loathe.
I don’t watch much TV, but at most, I’ll see about half a dozen Apple commercials per week. I can’t even count how many commercials I see for McDonald’s, or American Idol, or the evening news, for that matter. Now, that’s bombardment. The point is, even if you do happen to see a lot of Apple commercials, they’re no worse than many, many others.
If you’re talking about internet media sites, yes, there are many articles about Apple, but more often than not, you have to be browsing through the tech information sector of the web. And again, Apple does not stand alone here. Average Joe Consumer might not spend as much time reading up on the latest tech news, so he’s less likely to feel that Apple is everywhere. He may see an iPhone on eBay’s front page, or an article about Apple and DRM or Steve Jobs waistline on Google News, but I can’t find this 24/7/365 marketing blitz, and I’m often looking for Apple info.
This is very true, but you have to realize that some people prefer this. This closed system gives a feeling of comfort to those who are overwhelmed by too many options. Many appreciate the simplicity of a single choice. You and I may appreciate complexities, but many people are intimidated by them. I think this is what Apple strives to take advantage of.
To be fair, I don’t remember many advertisements for touchscreen phones before the iPhone came along. I just remember commercials saying that if you like chocolate, you should buy some particular phone. Or that a phone is RAZR thin. We won’t show you the interface, though. Yes, there were some great smart phones before the iPhone, but you have to give Apple credit for bringing it into the consumer spotlight.
I’m not trying to start anything; I just don’t see a reason behind the hate. I don’t like fanboys, either, but I do like Apple. I also think that Microsoft Labs has done some of the most innovative things on the web, and the Linux community is a godsend for old (and even new) beige boxes. I can’t find a good reason to exclude any part of the tech community for their contributions, especially Apple.
I think we’re pretty much on the same page Bryan.