With the arrival of the tablet the netbook and laptop use has gone down considerably. I still prefer the laptop for serious typing (long documents and preparing presentations) but can see myself adding a wireless keyboard and using the tab for those as well.

I expect we will have several dedicated devices for different tasks in the coming years until we have mass market technology that allows a more converged tool (an e-ink color screen that works as fast as current LCD screens on a very light weight tab like the Kindle, the power to run majority of apps an average user needs and 10+ hours of battery life would take care of most of my needs)

With the arrival of the tablet the netbook and laptop use has gone down considerably. I still prefer the laptop for serious typing (long documents and preparing presentations) but can see myself adding a wireless keyboard and using the tab for those as well.

I expect we will have several dedicated devices for different tasks in the coming years until we have mass market technology that allows a more converged tool (an e-ink color screen that works as fast as current LCD screens on a very light weight tab like the Kindle, the power to run majority of apps an average user needs and 10+ hours of battery life would take care of most of my needs)

We bought an iPad 2 and are hooked to tabs. I now read my newspapers on the iPad (miles better than the web based versions and much closer to reading the actual print), do my email, browse the web and do customer presentations on it. It has basically replaced my laptop and netbook.

Unfortunately my wife has just told me she is ditching the laptop for the iPad and i will need to get another if I want to use it.

Though i would very much prefer a webOS based tab as I considering it the best tab OS out there (yes it is better than both IOS and Android), i will go with an iPad 2. Basically because from what i have seen Apple is the only company which is currently selling a finished product with a real eco system and quality apps.

In two years when we decide to replace the iPads we will look again at the options, How ever I do not expect we will move out from Apple as we will already have a big investment in IOS apps.

Summary:

The iPad is the only finished product selling as of today (product quality, OS stability, wide selection of tab optimized apps)

Tablets are here to stay, apart from media consuming it is also fast finding areas where it is the best business tool for the job (from hospitals to education to sales and many technical jobs).

People will be reluctant to change platforms the more they are invested in a specific ecosystem. Thus the real fight is in winning the most new customers as the tablet market expands. Unless a user has major complaints about their OS and tablet expect them to upgrade in the same ecosystem in a few years.

I believe Apple, RIM and HP will have an advantage here as hardware vendors since the upgrade path goes through them, Android hardware makers on the other hand will have to fight to keep customers since any app you bought can be taken to any other Android device.

Expect higher profits from Apple and assuming they manage a decent market share from RIM and HP tab businesses as opposed to Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Asus and the rest. Google will ofcourse be making tons of money while the HW vendors are bleading, same as the PC business where all the profit goes to Microsoft.

Microsoft in the tab space is something everyone seems to be ignoring, if they manage a decent port with Win8 they could piggy back on their PC market share and corporate presence.

I expect the market for tabs to be very much fragmented 5 years from now with at least 3 or 4 OSes and a similar HW picture to wintel. Will Apple still be number 1 ? Maybe maybe not, more likely not, will they have a dominant market share ? Very likely, even if Android moves to number 1 I would be very surprised if Apple does not have a very big share of the market.

Last words. I find it funny how single minded people can become on these threads against or for Apple. Especially from the android camp, people talk about having choice with Android well choosing Apple is a choice as well and should not be greeted with insults.

P.S. I am not a fan of any camp, I buy what I consider to be the best at what it does in my price range.

“I am not rich enough to buy low quality and neither am I rich enough to buy mindlessly”

We bought an iPad 2 and are hooked to tabs. I now read my newspapers on the iPad (miles better than the web based versions and much closer to reading the actual print), do my email, browse the web and do customer presentations on it. It has basically replaced my laptop and netbook.

Unfortunately my wife has just told me she is ditching the laptop for the iPad and i will need to get another if I want to use it.

Though i would very much prefer a webOS based tab as I considering it the best tab OS out there (yes it is better than both IOS and Android), i will go with an iPad 2. Basically because from what i have seen Apple is the only company which is currently selling a finished product with a real eco system and quality apps.

In two years when we decide to replace the iPads we will look again at the options, How ever I do not expect we will move out from Apple as we will already have a big investment in IOS apps.

Summary:

The iPad is the only finished product selling as of today (product quality, OS stability, wide selection of tab optimized apps)

Tablets are here to stay, apart from media consuming it is also fast finding areas where it is the best business tool for the job (from hospitals to education to sales and many technical jobs).

People will be reluctant to change platforms the more they are invested in a specific ecosystem. Thus the real fight is in winning the most new customers as the tablet market expands. Unless a user has major complaints about their OS and tablet expect them to upgrade in the same ecosystem in a few years.

I believe Apple, RIM and HP will have an advantage here as hardware vendors since the upgrade path goes through them, Android hardware makers on the other hand will have to fight to keep customers since any app you bought can be taken to any other Android device.

Expect higher profits from Apple and assuming they manage a decent market share from RIM and HP tab businesses as opposed to Samsung, Motorola, HTC, Asus and the rest. Google will ofcourse be making tons of money while the HW vendors are bleading, same as the PC business where all the profit goes to Microsoft.

Microsoft in the tab space is something everyone seems to be ignoring, if they manage a decent port with Win8 they could piggy back on their PC market share and corporate presence.

I expect the market for tabs to be very much fragmented 5 years from now with at least 3 or 4 OSes and a similar HW picture to wintel. Will Apple still be number 1 ? Maybe maybe not, more likely not, will they have a dominant market share ? Very likely, even if Android moves to number 1 I would be very surprised if Apple does not have a very big share of the market.

Last words. I find it funny how single minded people can become on these threads against or for Apple. Especially from the android camp, people talk about having choice with Android well choosing Apple is a choice as well and should not be greeted with insults.

P.S. I am not a fan of any camp, I buy what I consider to be the best at what it does in my price range.

“I am not rich enough to buy low quality and neither am I rich enough to buy mindlessly”

Tablets are just one screen of many smart screens we will have in our lives in the future.   All screens will have a purpose or fill a purpose consumers feel valuable.   

Again I don’t get paid to look at where the market is now but where its going, this is why from the beginning I was vocal that Netbooks wouldn’t sustain and I was right.   So my take on tablets is more long term than short term. 

Tablets are a different story though largely again because of the potential and bright future for touch computing.  I believe they are here to stay and consumers will find value in their use cases.   

As I stated however the question is how big the TAM is.   That is yet to be clear.

Just my 2 cents

Just my 2 cents

Just my 2 cents

1.) Yes, all these phones are shipping with flash, which actually strengthens my point.  No one is using flash.  The majority of phones are flash enabled, yet only 80 percent of mobile is non-flash.  Clearly consumers don’t care about it see:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-20065624-17.html

2.) Lets talk choice, not only is Android the most adopted smartphone, but their users are even more loyal than Apple users.  Not only would more Android users not consider switching OSes, but they say they have an active hatred for Apple.  Yet, despite being the most dominant phone platform with the most rabid users, they can’t sell tablets.  If Android fans wanted tablets, what are they waiting for?  First the excuse was there are only off brand Android tablets, then the Galaxy Tab didn’t move numbers.  Then it was because there was no tablet OS (which is a knock on the iPad, but that didn’t stop them) and Honeycomb tablets can’t find a market.  Whats the excuse now?  So they have their choice, but their choice is not to buy. see:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-20055181-71.html

3.) You provided ancedotal evidence about enterprse adotion, but the numbers say absolutely the converse.  Not only do iPhones outpace Android in enterprise adoption, but the iPad completely dominates there as well.  see:

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/intermedia-finds-business-professionals-choosing-iphone-over-android-1513853.htm

As far as competition just starting to roll out, thats not true.  The first Android tablets launched before the iPad and Ballmer demoed Win7 slates before the iPad as well.  As for one tablet providing a positive experience, I base my criteria, not conjecture, on 2 things, reviews and sales.  Every Honeycomb review on non partial sites focuses on the potential of the platform, on the number of crashes they experience, and on the lack of apps available.  So, logically speaking, how am I supposed to interpret that as a positive experience.  And the high return rates of the Xoom, Galaxy Tab, and Playbook, how should I interpret that? see:

http://news.softpedia.com/news/BlackBerry-PlayBook-Sales-Disappointing-Return-Rates-High-201570.shtml

I’m not a tech analyst, I’m a career student and a business analyst.  Looking at all these factors, I don’t know how anyone can take an optimistic approach.  You can call me a fanboy, partial, whatever, but its clear the phone market is not an indicator for the tablet market.  I can’t state it more succinctly, phones are a necessity in modern society, tablets are a luxury product.  Saying because brand x is successful in a necessity category thus they will be successful in a luxury category despite all signs pointing to the opposite isn’t just wishful thinking, its simply wrong.

1.) Yes, all these phones are shipping with flash, which actually strengthens my point.  No one is using flash.  The majority of phones are flash enabled, yet only 80 percent of mobile is non-flash.  Clearly consumers don’t care about it see:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-20065624-17.html

2.) Lets talk choice, not only is Android the most adopted smartphone, but their users are even more loyal than Apple users.  Not only would more Android users not consider switching OSes, but they say they have an active hatred for Apple.  Yet, despite being the most dominant phone platform with the most rabid users, they can’t sell tablets.  If Android fans wanted tablets, what are they waiting for?  First the excuse was there are only off brand Android tablets, then the Galaxy Tab didn’t move numbers.  Then it was because there was no tablet OS (which is a knock on the iPad, but that didn’t stop them) and Honeycomb tablets can’t find a market.  Whats the excuse now?  So they have their choice, but their choice is not to buy. see:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-20055181-71.html

3.) You provided ancedotal evidence about enterprse adotion, but the numbers say absolutely the converse.  Not only do iPhones outpace Android in enterprise adoption, but the iPad completely dominates there as well.  see:

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/intermedia-finds-business-professionals-choosing-iphone-over-android-1513853.htm

As far as competition just starting to roll out, thats not true.  The first Android tablets launched before the iPad and Ballmer demoed Win7 slates before the iPad as well.  As for one tablet providing a positive experience, I base my criteria, not conjecture, on 2 things, reviews and sales.  Every Honeycomb review on non partial sites focuses on the potential of the platform, on the number of crashes they experience, and on the lack of apps available.  So, logically speaking, how am I supposed to interpret that as a positive experience.  And the high return rates of the Xoom, Galaxy Tab, and Playbook, how should I interpret that? see:

http://news.softpedia.com/news/BlackBerry-PlayBook-Sales-Disappointing-Return-Rates-High-201570.shtml

I’m not a tech analyst, I’m a career student and a business analyst.  Looking at all these factors, I don’t know how anyone can take an optimistic approach.  You can call me a fanboy, partial, whatever, but its clear the phone market is not an indicator for the tablet market.  I can’t state it more succinctly, phones are a necessity in modern society, tablets are a luxury product.  Saying because brand x is successful in a necessity category thus they will be successful in a luxury category despite all signs pointing to the opposite isn’t just wishful thinking, its simply wrong.

“Contrast that with apps for business, medicine, music, video, education, and everything else under the sun in a relatively affordable package and a sexy design.” – Quick Office HD, Pocket Cloud HD, WebMD, ICE, EMS ACLS, Spotify, Grooveshark, SoundHound, DoubleTwist, iSynchr, Plex, VLC, CueBrain, Perfect Ear, Monkey Pre School, but to name a few. Most, if not all are free or very reasonably priced in a segment of differently priced devices sporting different designs to match your tastes.

“Well, heres an interesting statistic, of mobile video, 80 is consumed on iOS devices” – Please cite source?

“Under those circumstances of course Android dominates, they can hit every segment while Apple is aimed squarely at the high end.” – There are also Android devices aimed at the high end (some of which currently trump the iPhone very comfortably) too, the fact it can be scaled by the OEM for different price points is an intentionally big advantage of Android, not just some dismiss-able inevitability as you seem to imply it is.

“I’ll save you the time, for the freedom…the freedom to have widgets, a beta os, and sparse apps.” – I’ve found widgets to be incredibly useful, probably one of the best things I like about Android. It means i don’t have to go into my email app every time i want to check e-mail, a quick view into it is right there on my home screen. If by a beta OS you mean always being developed and improved then yeah fine. I agree with sparse apps being Honeycombs biggest weakness, but it is a naturally self rectifying one.

I get you’re a big fan of Apple products, and for all the right reasons, but is there really any need to attack Android in this way? To me personally, all it does is reveal your insecurity through the need to attack other things. I like the iPad 2, i actually have no problem with it, but i have a problem when people start slagging off Android simply because the iPad 2 exists and imply through their comments that there’s no point in any other tablet on the market save for the iPad 2 because it’s ‘just better’. That basically goes against the principle of a free market, choice. I’m not a tinkerer, i’ve never touched a ROM or a kernel in my live but i have an Android phone (HTC DHD) because I really love the user experience it gives to me, plain and simple. I personally find iPhone too simplistic and at some points too disingenuous to my tastes. Are you going to attack me for that? Just because I prefer something that doesn’t fit in with this logic of “Apple or GTFO” doesn’t automatically qualify me as anything less than a person who’s just chosen differently to you. If people want Android, they’ll go Android; if people want iOS, they’ll go iOS. Live and let live.

Android has no chance. 

*Sarcasm off*

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Already, we’ve noticed that there will be a wide set of applications that can and will be used with the tablets and their software; from commercial, to other industries, as well as governmental use and application.  Already have I written software that helps hospitals on the healthcare and business sides interact better, and without the cumbersome need for lugging around the traditional Motion Tablets and Toughbooks.  At the same time, I’m getting visits, mailings and invites from companies that are showing off rugged tablets that either are in concept or are about to be released onto the market.  Some look nice enough to be used in and out of work, and others look like they belong in the ruck sack of travelling Soldiers.  But this tells me that there are companies thinking of the many ways that a tablet can and will be used.

And as stated before, I don’t doubt that Apple, Samsung, ASUS, Toshiba, LG, HTC (and others) will be seen as brand premiums.  Granted, I doubt that it was ever really a problem to begin with.  Handsets have shown that premium brands and franchises can exist and still continue a series of exponential growth (as I’m sure you’ve noticed.)  I also believe the same with tablets.  While some will be picky to the point of showing brand bias, I also believe that the majority of consumers (regardless) will pick their choices based on a myriad of things, from price, specs and quality to “future proofing”)  Within that diversity comes a drive to bring  better product at a more attractive price.

I am equally pleased that there is competition and I believe that everyone wins; from product bias consumers, to those of us who want the best affordable product on the market today (and tomorrow.)

First, the flaws in your retorts:

1. The market forecast is still too premature to know whether or not it is valid to precept that Apple will remain dominant; especially since the actual tablet-based Androids only started appearing in 1Q 2011. (and only now in 2Q 2011 have the other tablets started showing up.)
1.a) Your assertion that “Statistics show no one uses flash, and the only difference between Android and iOS on tablets is one has widgets and almost no useful apps and games, while the other one has tens of thousands of tablet specific apps and optimized games.” is erroneous on both accounts.  FIRST: A Millward Brown survey, conducted March 2011 stated that 99% of users on PC interfaces and is used by over 3 million web professionals; as opposed to Apple’s Quicktime libraries, which only shows 57% usership on the PC environment.   Now, if you were talking strictly mobile, Adobe only allowed certification for roughly 36 models of smartphones, regarding Flash Player, and over 20 million smartphones either shipped with or downloaded Flash Player. In addition, over 84 million smartphones and tablets (on Android, BlackBerry Tablet OS, and iOS) were addressable using Adobe AIR. (In 2010, roughly 24% of handsets contained Flash; primarily on AndroidOS.) 

According to Strategy Analytics, over 40 models of smartphones will be supporting Flash Player in the first half of this year. By the end of 2011, over 132 million smartphones (or 36% of smartphones) will support Flash Player, and over 50 models of tablets will ship with or be able to download Flash Player.  These are credible facts from two well-reputed analytical companies.  I welcome you to share your source disputing the growth of Adobe Flash usage.1b.)  At present, you see no widgets with QNX.  The flaw in your thinking suggests that it can’t/won’t be done.  Either way, it is a red herring; since there is also room in the market for multiple environments; be it iOS, Android, QNX, WebOS, Windows, Symbian, Linux (or any other OS slated for tablets.)

2.)  On the contrary, preference and choice can be both intertwined.  The consumer has the choice to choose from a spectrum of offerings on what it is that they want.  If they want Android, they will get it.  If they want iOS?  They can get that too.  QNX?  WebOS?  It is or will be available.

3.)  No one disputes that Apple is “recession proof”.  That’s would be like asserting that Google would file for bankruptcy soon based on their current practices.  This is yet another red herring, my friend.  Where you’re wrong, is that a “Tablets don’t serve any such basic utility.”; when indeed they actually do that VERY WELL.  While I have no doubt that there are certain companies that offer relatively crippled iterations of limited tablets at premium markups, I have personally witnessed how well tablets have served as intermediaries for those on the go; be it from watching people keep in touch with others in personal and social applications while traveling, to performing vital functions in their employment sector.  While it might not be within your vantage point, there are others who are pushing the envelope with current available (and non-constricted) tablets to make our real life environments a better, more efficient place.  As a developer, I already have done so utilizing Android and QNX environments to do what would be cumbersome on a laptop in my workplace.

Your assertion that ONLY ONE TABLET has provided a proven positive experience is equally erroneous.  Afterall, my workplace ditched them after 3 months of use.  By that same token, not everyone is going to like using the same exact product.  Even if you wanted to argue that iPad is the only tablet that provided a proven positive experience, I can also state that with newer tablets that there are those who prefer other environments.  Myself?  I currently still use Windows environment.  iOS is too simple for my tastes.  I know several who have fallen in love with the ASUS Transformer.  I know others who are waiting for the Samsung Galaxy Tab.  Quite a few more that bought Playbooks, and others waiting and seeing what WebOS brings before buying any of them.  That’s not including many others who could care less about any tablet (They just don’t see the point in it at all compared to something tactile in response.)

No less, the tablet market has MUCH ROOM for growth; not just in the personal consumer sector, but also in the commercial, military, medical and governmental sectors, as well.  The notion that no one uses “flash” is erroneous as is easily cited in numerous figures (as I have provided WITHOUT CONJECTURE.)  The thought thought only one tablet has shown a positive experience is equally naive; since the competition is just starting to roll out.

And this is coming from someone who has NO FAN BIAS.  As a developer, I can see and feel which way the wind is blowing, and it isn’t as stagnant as you claim it to be.

The observation is correct that its more a pro tablet article however we can’t ignore how the Android platform allows other vendors who want to compete in this space the opportunity.   

Also I was hoping to underscore that like smart phones this is a growth market.   Meaning there is a ton of headroom.   If this market was only a 100 million TAM (total addressable market) then I’d say Apple would own it, but its much bigger than that, probably north of 500m worldwide conservatively.   

So because of the TAM the upside across the board is huge.    Of course though you rightly point out that preference also will play a huge role and out weigh choice.   That and poorly made products will fail, and we will still see some bad ones still.   

People will still prefer Apple the way people prefer, BMW, Mercedes, Toyota etc.   Brand matters, which is also why I pointed out to watch what Amazon will do.   I feel Amazon is in a very interesting position.  

The bottom line is that I am pleased there is competition and all the vested parties are going to compete, some better than others, and force better products.   

Consumers win in this situation and that is always a good thing.  

1.) As his “joke” alluded to, there is no “tablet market”, theres a “iPad market”.  No other device has demonstrated the ability to sell in numbers.  Now, and in the forseeable future, tablets are a luxury, you don’t need one.  Being a luxury item, they need a convincing narrative to sell, what narrative has anyone not Apple spun?  All of them have been about flash and not being iOS
1.a.) Statistics show no one uses flash, and the only difference between Android and iOS on tablets is one has widgets and almost no useful apps and games, while the other one has tens of thousands of tablet specific apps and optimized games.
1.b.) QNX doesn’t even have widgets, it just has less apps and the aforementioned flash.

2.) again, I’m not sold that you can infer preference from choice.  Cast a wide enough net, youre bound to catch more fish.  Android phones, the widest net possible in a hugely saturated market. Success is almost a given, especially for a decent OS.

3.) Apple has shown to be uniquely recession proof.  While everyone is buying phones, due to expiring contracts, rebates, new every two etc., thats for something that serves a basic utility, staying in touch.  Tablets don’t serve any such basic utility.  They don’t do what a computer offers even half as well.  So, in this economic climate, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the depression, people whill just buy $400+ devices just because it piques their curiosity!?!?  Doubtful.  They want a proven positive experience.  One device offers that, one.

Long story short, the only argument for Android tablets I’ve ever heard is “well, look at what they did with phones, history is bound to repeat itself.”  To that faulty logic I counter, “look what apple did with the niche segment they popularized, MP3 players, history is bound to repeat itself”.

The customer base for tablets are more casual than dedicated (from what I’ve noticed), and while some prefer one brand to another, those same casual users are likely to try newer devices and environments if it piques their curiosity.  Just like with handsets (which people have changed environments quite a few times), the tablet trend will emulate the same theory.

With all due respect, tablets and handsets are NOT too fundamentally different; especially when the two top current OS performers are little more than enhanced versions of handset environments.  Rather, the market growth will emulate and maybe even fill in the gaps between handset and personal computer (which in many cases, is the direct market appeal for a tablet to begin with.)

If you’re stuck on the Android Vs. iOS argument (regarding Ben’s analysis), you’ve missed the even bigger picture, irrespective of what the headline reads.

You don’t just show up to market and sale because you had success in another product category.  Phones are fundamentally different.  Everyone needs a phone, and they want them in different ranges.  Android is available on every carrier, in every form factor, from every pricepoint from free onwards.  The iPhone is on 2 of the 4 carriers, and at 2 pricepoints on one network, and 3 on another, none of which is free.  Under those circumstances of course Android dominates, they can hit every segment while Apple is aimed squarely at the high end.  I’m honestly not sure most people even prefer android to iOS, its just a matter of what is in your price range and on your carrier.  So the argument that people want a Android tablet because most people have Android doesn’t hold much water with me.  In computers, if you want compatibility, you go Windows.  In a way, Apple is in a position of Windows as if you want the most relevant tablet apps, you’d be a fool to go anywhere else.  

Really though, I LOVE my Asus Transformer. It’s so much more useful than I thought it would be (both as a netbook and a tablet).

I think Android tablets will win the game. The iPad is nice but Android multitasking and flexability is very nice and will get better and better and better while the iPad will be.. well, the iPad.

Both devices are nice and have their own audience, but I envision the Android army overtaking the iPad quicker than it did the iPhone, even.